Regulatory Updates This time the ruling to vacate the SEC's previous decision is similar to the ruling with XRP in the sense that it targets more towards the inconsistency of the SEC's arguments. This can be considered as one of the key characteristics of U.S. judicial system which is case based instead of relying on statuatory law. It is especially true with insider trading or crypto related matters. At the same time, we noticed a sealed motion filed against Binance by SEC. This is extremely rare and most likely occurs when there is a parallel D.O.J litigation against Binance. It has much larger implications for the whole industry, no less than FTX turmoil.

Contrary to what others might think : I do not think June presents much of shorting opportunities, unlike what May brought to us. I have been adamant on shorting all May but now I am much less certain about shorting. The reasons are as follows : 1. The regulation headwinds are removed in the short term. Yes, there will be more news related to Binance and Coinbase lawsuits. But those will only be marginally affecting the market at best. Yesterday, the market failed to move lower facing Coinbase lawsuit is a manifestation of where the short-term momentum goes. 2. At the end of July, there will be huge liquidity drain with the issuance of U.S. debt. The crypto market might just as well get a short breath before moving down along with U.S. equity. 3. Making money by shorting the market is toxic even if I consistently shorted the market during the last two years. One has to be aware of the effect shorting has on you. Huge profits are made more by longing than by shorting. Taking a break from shorting could be also beneficial, mentally.

productivity -2.7%; Unit Labor Cost +6.3% Early signs of stagflation, similar to what Powel stressed yesterday in FOMC press conference. Expecting continuing headwind for risk assets

Goldman Sach’s Scott Rubner sent out a mail this afternoon, stating his "tactically bearish" stand : 1. GS Systematic futures strats estimate that CTA/Trend strategies have bought +$142.5B worth of Global Equity Futures over the past 1-month. Current positioning long +$116.8 Billion. 95% percentile on a 1-year rank. 2. GS Systematic futures strats estimate that Vol Control strategies have bought +$24B worth of Global Equity Futures over the past 1-month. Current positioning long +$170.9 Billion. 100% percentile on a 1-year rank. 3. GS Systematic futures strats estimate that Risk Parity strategies have bought +$7.3B worth of Global Equity Futures over the past 1-month. Current positioning long +$96.4 Billion. 100% percentile on a 1-year rank. 4. We estimate that total Systematic strategies purchased +$173.8B worth of global equity futures over the past 1-month.

At the moment, we focus on the potential TGA ramp-up. This will no doubt suck up the liquidity once debt ceiling is resolved. Judging from the current tax receipts, the resolution is required sooner than later. The impact on broad spectrum risk assets, crypto included, will be negative, since gov treasury is deemed as most secure investment with a decent yield. The "crowding-out" effect will ensue.

The real Shanghai upgrade unlock begins ...

CPI lower than expected with core in line with expection : 1. Overal data is promising; 2. But if we look into the datasets, the contributing factor - energy has shown signs of price increases. Plus the print was after the bank crisis. Inflation data for next months might not be as promising. 3. The recessionary concerns are also factored in. FOMC minutes will come out in a few hours. Also the ETH upgrade which would be the main drivers for the price actions in the this week.

All attention to tonight's CPI and tomorrow's ETH unlock : 1. CPI core expected to be 5.6% YoY, compared to last month's 5.5% 2. During the first week of Shanghai Upgrade, we expect a 100k-200k ETH unlocked for sale. 3. The hedge fund short position is second largest only to the one right before the 2008 GFC, as shown in the graph.

# bet big and walk away # Short term : U.S. stock tailwind = long-only hedge fund cash level highest in the last 15 months + TGA positioning Crypto headwind = regulation, especially in case of Binance + Ethereum upgrade 12th April Mid term : Revenue declines beginning to price in Long term : Recession headwind will appear during the Q3 = excess saving dried up, hence pressure on consumption + CRE and residential housing decline, negative wealth effect By the time that recession narrative becomes reality, we will buy the generational low. Junjie @Yvonne19_1

This indicator interprets macroeconomic hotspots in real time. It is convenient for users to understand the cycle more clearly and understand the macro fundamentals